A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
